Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Team pages: Fylkir Reykjavik · Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Fylkir Reykjavik2.65

Grotta Seltjarnarnes1.4

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Fylkir Reykjavik Draw Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fylkir Reykjavik 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDLW

Grotta Seltjarnarnes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDLL

Head-to-head

Fylkir Reykjavik 5–1–0 Grotta Seltjarnarnes (6 last)

Grotta Seltjarnarnes2-5Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik1-1Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Fylkir Reykjavik5-1Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Grotta Seltjarnarnes2-5Fylkir Reykjavik
Grotta Seltjarnarnes0-2Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik2-0Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fylkir Reykjavik 1524 · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1478

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Draw	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	63%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fylkir Reykjavik (rating 1524 vs 1478).
H2H favours Fylkir Reykjavik: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.42 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +5’	1.42	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:16	1.37	5.42	6.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fylkir Reykjavik 5–1–0 Grotta Seltjarnarnes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	2-5 HT 2-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
13/06/26 Iceland Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-1	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
27/08/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	5-1 HT 3-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
23/06/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	2-5 HT 0-2	Fylkir Reykjavik
30/08/20 Iceland Premier League	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	0-2 HT 0-2	Fylkir Reykjavik
29/06/20 Iceland Premier League	Fylkir Reykjavik	2-0 HT 0-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	20	13	3	4	62	31	42
2	Throttur Reykjavik	20	11	4	5	41	23	37
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	20	12	1	7	45	33	37
4	HK Kopavogur	20	11	2	7	47	35	35
5	Njardvik	20	11	2	7	36	26	35
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	20	8	3	9	35	38	27
7	IF Vestri	20	8	3	9	30	39	27
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	30	30	25
9	IR Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	36	41	25
10	Grindavik	20	4	9	7	20	31	21
11	Volsungur	20	5	5	10	27	43	20
12	KF Aegir	20	2	2	16	22	61	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fylkir Reykjavik	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Grindavik	6-1 W	0-0 D
Throttur Reykjavik	1-3 L	1-1 D
Afturelding	3-3 D	0-2 L
Leiknir Reykjavik	0-3 L	1-0 W
IR Reykjavik	0-2 L	1-3 L
Njardvik	4-1 W	1-4 L
IF Vestri	5-2 W	3-0 W
KF Aegir	4-2 W	6-1 W
HK Kopavogur	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Grotta Seltjarnarnes (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fylkir Reykjavik

LWWWLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-1	12	4	W
17/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
13/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
07/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
25/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W
03/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-2	3	2	W
26/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

Grotta Seltjarnarnes

WWLWWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
21/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-3	4	3	L
17/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
13/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
18/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-1	7	0	W
14/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
10/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
03/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	2-1	6	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fylkir Reykjavik win (63%). Probabilities: Fylkir Reykjavik 63%, draw 20%, Grotta Seltjarnarnes 17%.

How many goals are expected in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Fylkir Reykjavik 2.65 · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.