Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik

Team pages: IR Reykjavik · Leiknir Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

IR Reykjavik1.81

Leiknir Reykjavik1.34

1X2

48% 25% 28%

IR Reykjavik Draw Leiknir Reykjavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IR Reykjavik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLWWL

Leiknir Reykjavik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

IR Reykjavik 2–2–2 Leiknir Reykjavik (6 last)

Leiknir Reykjavik2-1IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik1-1Leiknir Reykjavik
Leiknir Reykjavik1-1IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik1-0Leiknir Reykjavik
Leiknir Reykjavik2-1IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik1-0Leiknir Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IR Reykjavik 1497 · Leiknir Reykjavik 1478

	IR Reykjavik	Draw	Leiknir Reykjavik
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IR Reykjavik	Leiknir Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +1’	1.90	3.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IR Reykjavik 2–2–2 Leiknir Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Leiknir Reykjavik	2-1 HT 0-1	IR Reykjavik
24/01/26 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	IR Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-0	Leiknir Reykjavik
23/08/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Leiknir Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-1	IR Reykjavik
13/06/25 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	1-0 HT 1-0	Leiknir Reykjavik
09/01/25 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Leiknir Reykjavik	2-1 HT 0-1	IR Reykjavik
25/07/24 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	1-0 HT 1-0	Leiknir Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	21	14	3	4	64	31	45
2	Throttur Reykjavik	21	12	4	5	48	25	40
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	21	13	1	7	48	34	40
4	HK Kopavogur	21	11	2	8	50	39	35
5	Njardvik	21	11	2	8	36	28	35
6	Leiknir Reykjavik	21	8	4	9	32	30	28
7	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	21	8	3	10	36	41	27
8	IF Vestri	21	8	3	10	30	41	27
9	IR Reykjavik	21	7	4	10	37	44	25
10	Grindavik	21	5	9	7	24	34	24
11	Volsungur	21	6	5	10	30	44	23
12	KF Aegir	21	2	2	17	24	68	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IR Reykjavik	Leiknir Reykjavik
Volsungur	1-3 L	3-3 D
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	3-1 W	0-1 L
Njardvik	3-1 W	2-0 W
IF Vestri	0-1 L	0-2 L
KF Aegir	3-2 W	6-1 W
Fylkir Reykjavik	2-0 W	3-0 W
Grindavik	0-0 D	0-1 L
HK Kopavogur	1-5 L	1-2 L
Throttur Reykjavik	1-1 D	1-5 L
Afturelding	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IR Reykjavik

LDLDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
21/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
17/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
06/08	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-2	10	4	W
25/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-5	6	2	L
10/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	9	D
03/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	7	2	L

Leiknir Reykjavik

DLLLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
17/08	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	3	2	W
13/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
07/08	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
29/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
16/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	2-3	3	3	L
10/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	11	2	L
04/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IR Reykjavik win (48%). Probabilities: IR Reykjavik 48%, draw 25%, Leiknir Reykjavik 28%.

How many goals are expected in IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik?

The model expects 3.15 goals (IR Reykjavik 1.81 · Leiknir Reykjavik 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.