Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: KF Aegir vs Grindavik

Team pages: KF Aegir · Grindavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

KF Aegir1.34

Grindavik2.54

1X2

18% 20% 63%

KF Aegir Draw Grindavik

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Aegir 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Grindavik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLWDLW

Head-to-head

KF Aegir 0–1–2 Grindavik (3 last)

Grindavik0-0KF Aegir
Grindavik7-2KF Aegir
KF Aegir1-3Grindavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Aegir 1371 · Grindavik 1496

	KF Aegir	Draw	Grindavik
Our model	18%	19%	63%
Market	18%	20%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grindavik (rating 1371 vs 1496).
H2H favours Grindavik: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Aegir	Grindavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 4.8	1.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 2.6	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.4	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +8’	5.00	4.50	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Aegir 0–1–2 Grindavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Grindavik	0-0 HT 0-0	KF Aegir
25/08/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Grindavik	7-2 HT 2-0	KF Aegir
22/06/23 Iceland 1 Deild	KF Aegir	1-3 HT 1-2	Grindavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	21	14	3	4	64	31	45
2	Throttur Reykjavik	21	12	4	5	48	25	40
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	21	13	1	7	48	34	40
4	HK Kopavogur	21	11	2	8	50	39	35
5	Njardvik	21	11	2	8	36	28	35
6	Leiknir Reykjavik	21	8	4	9	32	30	28
7	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	21	8	3	10	36	41	27
8	IF Vestri	21	8	3	10	30	41	27
9	IR Reykjavik	21	7	4	10	37	44	25
10	Grindavik	21	5	9	7	24	34	24
11	Volsungur	21	6	5	10	30	44	23
12	KF Aegir	21	2	2	17	24	68	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Aegir	Grindavik
Throttur Reykjavik	2-7 L	2-1 W
Afturelding	0-7 L	1-4 L
Leiknir Reykjavik	1-6 L	1-0 W
Volsungur	0-2 L	0-2 L
IR Reykjavik	2-3 L	0-0 D
Njardvik	0-1 L	4-5 L
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-6 L	0-0 D
HK Kopavogur	3-4 L	4-3 W
Fylkir Reykjavik	2-4 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 9 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Grindavik (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Aegir

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-3	2-7	1	4	L
21/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	0-7	0	3	L
17/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	1-6	5	2	L
13/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
06/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
28/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
18/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-6	11	0	L
10/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	3-4	3-4	2	3	L
03/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
29/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	1-8	1	1	L

Grindavik

LWDLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	3-0	4-3	6	6	W
22/08	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-6	9	4	L
17/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
07/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-4	3	2	L
29/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
24/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
18/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
14/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
10/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	3-3	4-5	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Aegir vs Grindavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grindavik win (63%). Probabilities: KF Aegir 18%, draw 20%, Grindavik 63%.

How many goals are expected in KF Aegir vs Grindavik?

The model expects 3.87 goals (KF Aegir 1.34 · Grindavik 2.54), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Aegir vs Grindavik?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.