Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grindavik

Team pages: Fylkir Reykjavik · Grindavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Fylkir Reykjavik2.24

Grindavik1.11

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Fylkir Reykjavik Draw Grindavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fylkir Reykjavik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWLDL

Grindavik 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLWLWD

Head-to-head

Fylkir Reykjavik 4–1–1 Grindavik (6 last)

Grindavik0-1Fylkir Reykjavik
Grindavik0-4Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik1-1Grindavik
Fylkir Reykjavik5-2Grindavik
Grindavik1-0Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik2-0Grindavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fylkir Reykjavik 1530 · Grindavik 1474

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Draw	Grindavik
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fylkir Reykjavik (rating 1530 vs 1474).
H2H favours Fylkir Reykjavik: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Grindavik
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.46
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.88 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +5’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +1’	1.46	4.83	5.31
02:16 +1’	1.46▼	4.88▲	5.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fylkir Reykjavik 4–1–1 Grindavik

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Grindavik	0-1 HT 0-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
23/08/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Grindavik	0-4 HT 0-3	Fylkir Reykjavik
13/06/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-1 HT 1-0	Grindavik
05/08/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	5-2 HT 1-2	Grindavik
28/05/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Grindavik	1-0 HT 0-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
19/02/22 Iceland League Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	2-0 HT 0-0	Grindavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Throttur Reykjavik	19	11	4	4	41	20	37
2	Afturelding	18	11	3	4	53	31	36
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	19	11	1	7	39	32	34
4	HK Kopavogur	19	10	2	7	44	35	32
5	Njardvik	19	10	2	7	32	26	32
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	18	8	3	7	34	33	27
7	Leiknir Reykjavik	19	7	4	8	30	28	25
8	IF Vestri	19	7	3	9	28	39	24
9	IR Reykjavik	19	6	4	9	33	40	22
10	Grindavik	19	4	9	6	19	25	21
11	Volsungur	19	5	5	9	27	39	20
12	KF Aegir	19	2	2	15	22	54	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fylkir Reykjavik	Grindavik
Throttur Reykjavik	1-3 L	2-1 W
Afturelding	3-3 D	1-4 L
Leiknir Reykjavik	0-3 L	1-0 W
Volsungur	3-1 W	0-2 L
IR Reykjavik	0-2 L	0-0 D
Njardvik	4-1 W	4-5 L
IF Vestri	5-2 W	0-0 D
KF Aegir	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fylkir Reykjavik (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fylkir Reykjavik

LWWWDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
13/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
07/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
25/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
21/07	Afturelding Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W
03/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-2	3	2	W
26/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

Grindavik

DDLWDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
07/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-4	3	2	L
29/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
24/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
18/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
14/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
10/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	3-3	4-5	1	4	L
04/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grindavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fylkir Reykjavik win (62%). Probabilities: Fylkir Reykjavik 62%, draw 21%, Grindavik 17%.

How many goals are expected in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grindavik?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Fylkir Reykjavik 2.24 · Grindavik 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Grindavik?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.