Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 18/07, 07:00
Prediction: Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.71Total
Melbourne City NPL (W)1.36
Essendon Royals (W)3.36
1X2
Melbourne City NPL (W)
Draw
Essendon Royals (W)
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne City NPL (W)
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Essendon Royals (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne City NPL (W)
0–1
Essendon Royals (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne City NPL (W) 1398 · Essendon Royals (W) 1584
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | Draw | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 2% | 5% | 93% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.71 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1398 vs 1584).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 4.4 | 3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 2.3 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/20/80% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City NPL (W) 0–0–1 Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Melbourne City NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Box Hill (W) | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 24 | 44 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Alamein FC (W) | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 35 |
| 7 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 34 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 39 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 73 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne City NPL (W) | Essendon Royals (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Keilor Park (W) | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Avondale FC (W) | 1-6 L | 2-4 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 0-5 L | 4-2 W |
| Alamein FC (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Box Hill (W) | 1-5 L | 7-1 W |
| South Melbourne (W) | 2-9 L | 4-1 W |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 3-9 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 8 L | 7 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne City NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-7 | 2-9 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 3-9 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Essendon Royals (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Melbourne City NPL (W) 6%, draw 9%, Essendon Royals (W) 85%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
The model expects 4.71 goals (Melbourne City NPL (W) 1.36 · Essendon Royals (W) 3.36), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.