Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 25/07, 07:30

Prediction: South Melbourne (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

South Melbourne (W)1.76

Bulleen Lions (W)1.49

1X2

44% 24% 32%

South Melbourne (W) Draw Bulleen Lions (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDDLWD

Bulleen Lions (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWDLD

Head-to-head

South Melbourne (W) 2–3–1 Bulleen Lions (W) (6 last)

Bulleen Lions (W)1-2South Melbourne (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)3-3South Melbourne (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)2-3South Melbourne (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne (W) 1545 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1534

	South Melbourne (W)	Draw	Bulleen Lions (W)
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +3’	2.05	3.75	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne (W) 2–3–1 Bulleen Lions (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	South Melbourne (W)
16/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	3-3 HT 0-3	South Melbourne (W)
16/07/25 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	South Melbourne (W)
18/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
30/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
08/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	South Melbourne (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	21	15	2	4	57	24	47
2	Essendon Royals (W)	21	14	2	5	57	24	44
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	21	13	4	4	51	20	43
4	Avondale FC (W)	21	13	2	6	51	22	41
5	South Melbourne (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	21	12	1	8	45	33	37
7	Alamein FC (W)	21	11	3	7	28	22	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	20	8	2	10	35	40	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	21	8	2	11	25	30	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	21	6	5	10	32	40	23
11	Keilor Park (W)	21	6	5	10	22	37	23
12	Preston Lions (W)	21	5	5	11	25	41	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	20	2	1	17	20	78	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	21	1	2	18	15	74	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Box Hill (W)	2-2 D	2-2 D
Heidelberg United (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Preston Lions (W)	3-0 W	2-2 D
Bentleigh Greens (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Essendon Royals (W)	1-4 L	2-4 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	9-2 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

South Melbourne (W)

WLWWWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	11	0	W
16/05	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
09/05	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	7-1	9-2	10	1	W

Bulleen Lions (W)

DWLWWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-2	2-4	3	3	L
10/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
03/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
30/06	Box Hill (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
27/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
20/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	5-0	7	1	W
06/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
02/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
30/05	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-3	4	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne (W) win (44%). Probabilities: South Melbourne (W) 44%, draw 24%, Bulleen Lions (W) 32%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model expects 3.25 goals (South Melbourne (W) 1.76 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.