Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 25/07, 08:15

Prediction: Heidelberg United (W) vs Avondale FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Heidelberg United (W)1.25

Avondale FC (W)2.15

1X2

21% 22% 57%

Heidelberg United (W) Draw Avondale FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Heidelberg United (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Avondale FC (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Heidelberg United (W) 2–0 Avondale FC (W) (2 last)

Avondale FC (W)1-3Heidelberg United (W)
Avondale FC (W)0-1Heidelberg United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heidelberg United (W) 1463 · Avondale FC (W) 1567

	Heidelberg United (W)	Draw	Avondale FC (W)
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	21%	21%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avondale FC (W) (rating 1463 vs 1567).
H2H favours Heidelberg United (W): 2-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heidelberg United (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +8’	4.33	4.10	1.55
15:02 +8’	4.50▲	4.10	1.53▼
16:05 +5’	4.20▼	4.20▲	1.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heidelberg United (W) 2–0–0 Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Avondale FC (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Heidelberg United (W)
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Avondale FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Heidelberg United (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	21	15	2	4	57	24	47
2	Essendon Royals (W)	21	14	2	5	57	24	44
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	21	13	4	4	51	20	43
4	Avondale FC (W)	21	13	2	6	51	22	41
5	South Melbourne (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	21	12	1	8	45	33	37
7	Alamein FC (W)	21	11	3	7	28	22	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	20	8	2	10	35	40	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	21	8	2	11	25	30	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	21	6	5	10	32	40	23
11	Keilor Park (W)	21	6	5	10	22	37	23
12	Preston Lions (W)	21	5	5	11	25	41	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	20	2	1	17	20	78	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	21	1	2	18	15	74	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heidelberg United (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)	1-1 D	3-3 D
Alamein FC (W)	1-2 L	4-0 W
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	0-2 L	3-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Heidelberg United (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
11/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
03/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
27/06	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
21/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
30/05	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
22/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
19/05	Avondale FC (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
15/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	8	0	W

Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
10/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
04/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	4-2	4	1	W
27/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	6-1	10	0	W
20/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
06/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
30/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-3	3	0	D
23/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
19/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
16/05	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heidelberg United (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale FC (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Heidelberg United (W) 21%, draw 22%, Avondale FC (W) 57%.

How many goals are expected in Heidelberg United (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Heidelberg United (W) 1.25 · Avondale FC (W) 2.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heidelberg United (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.