Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 25/07, 07:00

Prediction: Essendon Royals (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Essendon Royals (W)2.6

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)1.35

1X2

63% 19% 17%

Essendon Royals (W) Draw Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Essendon Royals (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Essendon Royals (W) 1–0 Melbourne Victory NPL (W) (1 last)

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)0-3Essendon Royals (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Essendon Royals (W) 1593 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1450

	Essendon Royals (W)	Draw	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Our model	64%	19%	18%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1593 vs 1450).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Essendon Royals (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +7’	1.42	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals (W) 1–0–0 Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Essendon Royals (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	21	15	2	4	57	24	47
2	Essendon Royals (W)	21	14	2	5	57	24	44
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	21	13	4	4	51	20	43
4	Avondale FC (W)	21	13	2	6	51	22	41
5	South Melbourne (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	21	12	1	8	45	33	37
7	Alamein FC (W)	21	11	3	7	28	22	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	20	8	2	10	35	40	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	21	8	2	11	25	30	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	21	6	5	10	32	40	23
11	Keilor Park (W)	21	6	5	10	22	37	23
12	Preston Lions (W)	21	5	5	11	25	41	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	20	2	1	17	20	78	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	21	1	2	18	15	74	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Essendon Royals (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)	4-2 W	0-2 L
Keilor Park (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Avondale FC (W)	2-4 L	1-2 L
Alamein FC (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	4-0 W	2-4 L
Box Hill (W)	7-1 W	1-5 L
South Melbourne (W)	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Essendon Royals (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	9	0	W
15/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-2	4-2	0	3	W
11/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
04/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	2-4	2	1	L
27/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
20/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
31/05	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	4-0	9	0	W
23/05	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	4-0	7-1	8	2	W
16/05	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	4-1	3	5	W

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-4	3	0	L
04/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-5	4	0	L
27/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
20/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
06/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
30/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
17/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
09/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	5-0	13	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals (W) 63%, draw 19%, Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Essendon Royals (W) 2.6 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Essendon Royals (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.