Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: Box Hill (W) vs Alamein FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Box Hill (W)2.31

Alamein FC (W)1.1

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Box Hill (W) Draw Alamein FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Box Hill (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDDWWW

Alamein FC (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWWD

Head-to-head

Box Hill (W) 4–2 Alamein FC (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Box Hill (W) 1610 · Alamein FC (W) 1510

	Box Hill (W)	Draw	Alamein FC (W)
Our model	64%	20%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1610 vs 1510).
H2H favours Box Hill (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Box Hill (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +1’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill (W) 4–0–2 Alamein FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Box Hill (W)
15/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Alamein FC (W)
17/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Box Hill (W)
29/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Box Hill (W)
05/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Alamein FC (W)
11/08/23 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Alamein FC (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	21	15	2	4	57	24	47
2	Essendon Royals (W)	21	14	2	5	57	24	44
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	21	13	4	4	51	20	43
4	Avondale FC (W)	21	13	2	6	51	22	41
5	South Melbourne (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	21	12	1	8	45	33	37
7	Alamein FC (W)	21	11	3	7	28	22	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	20	8	2	10	35	40	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	21	8	2	11	25	30	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	21	6	5	10	32	40	23
11	Keilor Park (W)	21	6	5	10	22	37	23
12	Preston Lions (W)	21	5	5	11	25	41	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	20	2	1	17	20	78	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	21	1	2	18	15	74	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Box Hill (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)	2-2 D	1-2 L
South Melbourne (W)	2-2 D	1-1 D
Heidelberg United (W)	3-1 W	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	3-1 W	1-1 D
Essendon Royals (W)	1-7 L	0-2 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	5-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Box Hill (W)

WLWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
30/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
07/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
29/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	3-1	4	0	W
23/05	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-4	1-7	2	2	L
15/05	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	5-1	6	1	W

Alamein FC (W)

WLLWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
04/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
06/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
30/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	2	5	W
23/05	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
16/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
13/05	Bundoora Utd (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Box Hill (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Box Hill (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Box Hill (W) 64%, draw 20%, Alamein FC (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Box Hill (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Box Hill (W) 2.31 · Alamein FC (W) 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Box Hill (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.