Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 09/08, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Spring Hills FC (W)

Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) · Spring Hills FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)1.88

Spring Hills FC (W)1.16

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Draw Spring Hills FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Spring Hills FC (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1–0 Spring Hills FC (W) (1 last)

Spring Hills FC (W)1-4Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1475 · Spring Hills FC (W) 1456

	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Draw	Spring Hills FC (W)
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Spring Hills FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	0.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +7’	1.65	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1–0–0 Spring Hills FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Spring Hills FC (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	22	16	2	4	59	24	50
2	Essendon Royals (W)	22	15	2	5	63	24	47
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	22	14	4	4	53	21	46
4	Avondale FC (W)	22	14	2	6	55	22	44
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	22	13	1	8	47	34	40
6	South Melbourne (W)	22	11	6	5	43	22	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	22	11	3	8	28	24	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	22	9	2	11	41	47	29
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	22	8	2	12	26	32	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	22	6	5	11	32	44	23
11	Preston Lions (W)	22	6	5	11	26	41	23
12	Keilor Park (W)	22	6	5	11	22	38	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	22	2	2	18	17	74	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	22	2	1	19	21	86	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Spring Hills FC (W)
Melbourne City NPL (W)	6-1 W	1-1 D
Essendon Royals (W)	0-6 L	1-2 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	2-4 L	1-2 L
Box Hill (W)	1-5 L	0-1 L
Keilor Park (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
South Melbourne (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Heidelberg United (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Bulleen Lions (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Preston Lions (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Spring Hills FC (W) (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
25/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-6	5	0	L
19/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-4	3	0	L
04/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-5	4	0	L
27/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
20/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
06/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
30/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
17/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	3	0	W

Spring Hills FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
17/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	2	0	L
11/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
03/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
26/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
02/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	0-1	0-1	2	0	L
29/05	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-2	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Spring Hills FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 54%, draw 23%, Spring Hills FC (W) 23%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Spring Hills FC (W)?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.88 · Spring Hills FC (W) 1.16), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Spring Hills FC (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.