Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Alamein FC (W)

Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) · Alamein FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)1.63

Alamein FC (W)1.51

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Draw Alamein FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLWWL

Alamein FC (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 0–1 Alamein FC (W) (1 last)

Alamein FC (W)2-0Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1458 · Alamein FC (W) 1530

	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Draw	Alamein FC (W)
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alamein FC (W) (rating 1458 vs 1530).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:30 +9’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 0–0–1 Alamein FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	24	17	3	4	63	27	54
2	Essendon Royals (W)	24	17	2	5	73	27	53
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	24	15	4	5	56	24	49
4	Avondale FC (W)	24	15	3	6	57	23	48
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	24	14	1	9	48	35	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	24	11	6	7	43	24	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	24	12	3	9	31	25	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	24	10	2	12	45	51	32
9	Heidelberg United (W)	24	8	5	11	36	45	29
10	Spring Hills FC (W)	24	8	2	14	27	38	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	24	7	5	12	29	46	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	24	7	5	12	23	40	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	24	3	2	19	22	80	11
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	24	2	1	21	22	90	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Bentleigh Greens (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Spring Hills FC (W)	3-1 W	3-0 W
Melbourne City NPL (W)	6-1 W	2-1 W
Essendon Royals (W)	0-6 L	0-2 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	2-4 L	0-1 L
Box Hill (W)	1-5 L	0-2 L
Keilor Park (W)	1-2 L	3-0 W
South Melbourne (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Heidelberg United (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alamein FC (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
09/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
25/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-6	5	0	L
19/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-4	3	0	L
04/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-5	4	0	L
27/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
20/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
06/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
30/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Alamein FC (W)

WWLDWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
08/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
24/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
04/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
06/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
30/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 40%, draw 26%, Alamein FC (W) 34%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.63 · Alamein FC (W) 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.