Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: South Melbourne (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)

Team pages: South Melbourne (W) · Essendon Royals (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

South Melbourne (W)1.44

Essendon Royals (W)1.85

1X2

29% 24% 46%

South Melbourne (W) Draw Essendon Royals (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDLLLW

Essendon Royals (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

South Melbourne (W) 1–1–3 Essendon Royals (W) (5 last)

Essendon Royals (W)4-1South Melbourne (W)
South Melbourne (W)2-1Essendon Royals (W)
Essendon Royals (W)3-0South Melbourne (W)
Essendon Royals (W)1-1South Melbourne (W)
South Melbourne (W)1-2Essendon Royals (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne (W) 1480 · Essendon Royals (W) 1608

	South Melbourne (W)	Draw	Essendon Royals (W)
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1480 vs 1608).
H2H favours Essendon Royals (W): 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne (W)	Essendon Royals (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	3.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.70

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	4.00 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	1.61 → 1.91▲	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:40 +44’	4.00	4.00	1.61
20:23 +18’	3.00▼	3.70▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne (W) 1–1–3 Essendon Royals (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	4-1 HT 3-0	South Melbourne (W)
23/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Essendon Royals (W)
24/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	South Melbourne (W)
06/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	South Melbourne (W)
20/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Essendon Royals (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	25	18	3	4	66	27	57
2	Essendon Royals (W)	25	18	2	5	76	28	56
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	25	16	4	5	59	26	52
4	Avondale FC (W)	25	15	4	6	60	26	49
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	25	14	2	9	51	38	44
6	South Melbourne (W)	25	12	6	7	46	24	42
7	Alamein FC (W)	25	12	3	10	32	27	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	25	11	2	12	47	52	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	25	8	5	12	37	48	29
10	Preston Lions (W)	25	7	6	12	29	46	27
11	Spring Hills FC (W)	25	8	2	15	29	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	25	7	5	13	23	43	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	25	3	3	19	22	80	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	25	2	1	22	22	93	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne (W)	Essendon Royals (W)
Melbourne City NPL (W)	3-0 W	3-1 W
Keilor Park (W)	0-1 L	3-0 W
Avondale FC (W)	0-1 L	2-4 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Alamein FC (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	1-1 D	6-0 W
Heidelberg United (W)	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Melbourne (W)

WDDLWDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
15/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
08/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
25/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
18/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
06/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	10	2	W

Essendon Royals (W)

WWLLWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	3-1	9	0	W
14/08	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	5-1	8	2	W
08/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	5-2	6	1	W
25/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	6-0	5	0	W
18/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	9	0	W
11/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
04/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	2-4	2	1	L
27/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
20/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Essendon Royals (W) win (46%). Probabilities: South Melbourne (W) 29%, draw 24%, Essendon Royals (W) 46%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

The model expects 3.29 goals (South Melbourne (W) 1.44 · Essendon Royals (W) 1.85), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.