Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Alamein FC (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)

Team pages: Alamein FC (W) · Bulleen Lions (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Alamein FC (W)0.94

Bulleen Lions (W)1.86

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Alamein FC (W) Draw Bulleen Lions (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alamein FC (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDLLWL

Bulleen Lions (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWLWW

Head-to-head

Alamein FC (W) 1–5 Bulleen Lions (W) (6 last)

Bulleen Lions (W)2-1Alamein FC (W)
Alamein FC (W)1-3Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)2-1Alamein FC (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)0-1Alamein FC (W)
Alamein FC (W)1-4Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)4-3Alamein FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alamein FC (W) 1496 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1548

	Alamein FC (W)	Draw	Bulleen Lions (W)
Our model	18%	25%	58%
Market	19%	22%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bulleen Lions (W) (rating 1496 vs 1548).
H2H favours Bulleen Lions (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alamein FC (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
X	3.80 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	1.80 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:09 +15’	3.40	3.80	1.80
18:05 +2’	2.88▼	3.70▼	2.05▲
20:33 +8’	3.90▲	3.90▲	1.67▼
02:38 +10’	4.75▲	4.20▲	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alamein FC (W) 1–0–5 Bulleen Lions (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Alamein FC (W)
05/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
25/06/25 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Alamein FC (W)
05/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Alamein FC (W)
17/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	1-4 HT 0-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
27/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	4-3 HT 1-0	Alamein FC (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	25	18	3	4	66	27	57
2	Essendon Royals (W)	25	18	2	5	76	28	56
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	25	16	4	5	59	26	52
4	Avondale FC (W)	25	15	4	6	60	26	49
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	25	14	2	9	51	38	44
6	South Melbourne (W)	25	12	6	7	46	24	42
7	Alamein FC (W)	25	12	3	10	32	27	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	25	11	2	12	47	52	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	25	8	5	12	37	48	29
10	Preston Lions (W)	25	7	6	12	29	46	27
11	Spring Hills FC (W)	25	8	2	15	29	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	25	7	5	13	23	43	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	25	3	3	19	22	80	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	25	2	1	22	22	93	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alamein FC (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Spring Hills FC (W)	3-0 W	3-2 W
Boroondara Eagles (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Box Hill (W)	0-2 L	2-3 L
South Melbourne (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Heidelberg United (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Preston Lions (W)	2-0 W	2-2 D
Bentleigh Greens (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Essendon Royals (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Melbourne City NPL (W)	2-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bulleen Lions (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alamein FC (W)

WLDWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
14/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
08/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
24/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
04/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
06/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Bulleen Lions (W)

LWWWDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	3-2	5	1	W
16/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
08/08	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
25/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
18/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
03/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
27/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
20/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	5-0	7	1	W
06/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alamein FC (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bulleen Lions (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Alamein FC (W) 18%, draw 23%, Bulleen Lions (W) 59%.

How many goals are expected in Alamein FC (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Alamein FC (W) 0.94 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alamein FC (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.