Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)

Team pages: Melbourne City NPL (W) · Box Hill (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.7Total

Melbourne City NPL (W)1.35

Box Hill (W)3.35

1X2

7% 9% 85%

Melbourne City NPL (W) Draw Box Hill (W)

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne City NPL (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Box Hill (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne City NPL (W) 0–1 Box Hill (W) (1 last)

Box Hill (W)5-1Melbourne City NPL (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne City NPL (W) 1360 · Box Hill (W) 1623

	Melbourne City NPL (W)	Draw	Box Hill (W)
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	3%	5%	92%

Estimated total (ours) 4.7 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1360 vs 1623).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne City NPL (W)	Box Hill (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 3.4	2.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/0/90%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.4	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

134.00

X19.00

21.02

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4)1.95

2 (-4)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.88

Under 4.751.93

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	34.00 → 34.00	Bet365 34.00
X	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00
2	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:21 +6’	34.00	19.00	1.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City NPL (W) 0–0–1 Box Hill (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	5-1 HT 2-1	Melbourne City NPL (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	25	18	3	4	66	27	57
2	Essendon Royals (W)	25	18	2	5	76	28	56
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	25	16	4	5	59	26	52
4	Avondale FC (W)	25	15	4	6	60	26	49
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	25	14	2	9	51	38	44
6	South Melbourne (W)	25	12	6	7	46	24	42
7	Alamein FC (W)	25	12	3	10	32	27	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	25	11	2	12	47	52	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	25	8	5	12	37	48	29
10	Preston Lions (W)	25	7	6	12	29	46	27
11	Spring Hills FC (W)	25	8	2	15	29	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	25	7	5	13	23	43	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	25	3	3	19	22	80	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	25	2	1	22	22	93	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne City NPL (W)	Box Hill (W)
South Melbourne (W)	0-3 L	2-2 D
Heidelberg United (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	0-2 L	3-0 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	1-6 L	5-1 W
Keilor Park (W)	1-3 L	3-0 W
Avondale FC (W)	1-6 L	1-1 D
Bulleen Lions (W)	0-5 L	3-2 W
Alamein FC (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne City NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	0	1	L
14/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
02/08	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-6	5	2	L
25/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
18/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L
04/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	1-3	2	0	L
27/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-6	0	0	L
20/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-5	3	1	L
06/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	2	2	L

Box Hill (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
14/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
07/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Box Hill (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Melbourne City NPL (W) 7%, draw 9%, Box Hill (W) 85%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model expects 4.7 goals (Melbourne City NPL (W) 1.35 · Box Hill (W) 3.35), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne City NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.