Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: Essendon Royals (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)

Team pages: Essendon Royals (W) · Heidelberg United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Essendon Royals (W)2.41

Heidelberg United (W)1.21

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Essendon Royals (W) Draw Heidelberg United (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Essendon Royals (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Heidelberg United (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Essendon Royals (W) 2–1–3 Heidelberg United (W) (6 last)

Heidelberg United (W)1-4Essendon Royals (W)
Heidelberg United (W)1-1Essendon Royals (W)
Heidelberg United (W)1-0Essendon Royals (W)
Essendon Royals (W)0-3Heidelberg United (W)
Heidelberg United (W)3-2Essendon Royals (W)
Essendon Royals (W)2-0Heidelberg United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Essendon Royals (W) 1593 · Heidelberg United (W) 1448

	Essendon Royals (W)	Draw	Heidelberg United (W)
Our model	63%	20%	17%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1593 vs 1448).
H2H favours Heidelberg United (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Essendon Royals (W)	Heidelberg United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.3	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:37 +1’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals (W) 2–1–3 Heidelberg United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Heidelberg United (W)	1-4 HT 0-1	Essendon Royals (W)
09/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Heidelberg United (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Essendon Royals (W)
06/09/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Heidelberg United (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Essendon Royals (W)
30/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Heidelberg United (W)
31/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Heidelberg United (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Essendon Royals (W)
22/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Heidelberg United (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	24	17	3	4	63	27	54
2	Essendon Royals (W)	24	17	2	5	73	27	53
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	24	15	4	5	56	24	49
4	Avondale FC (W)	24	15	3	6	57	23	48
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	24	14	1	9	48	35	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	24	11	6	7	43	24	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	24	12	3	9	31	25	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	24	10	2	12	45	51	32
9	Heidelberg United (W)	24	8	5	11	36	45	29
10	Spring Hills FC (W)	24	8	2	14	27	38	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	24	7	5	12	29	46	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	24	7	5	12	23	40	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	24	3	2	19	22	80	11
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	24	2	1	21	22	90	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Essendon Royals (W)	Heidelberg United (W)
Melbourne City NPL (W)	3-1 W	2-1 W
Bulleen Lions (W)	4-2 W	1-1 D
Keilor Park (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Avondale FC (W)	2-4 L	0-4 L
Alamein FC (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Essendon Royals (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	5-1	8	2	W
08/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	5-2	6	1	W
01/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	4-1	2	1	W
25/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	6-0	5	0	W
18/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	9	0	W
15/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-2	4-2	0	3	W
11/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
04/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	2-4	2	1	L
27/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
20/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W

Heidelberg United (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
11/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
01/08	Essendon Royals (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
25/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-4	0-4	0	0	L
18/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
11/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
03/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
27/06	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
21/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals (W) 64%, draw 19%, Heidelberg United (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Essendon Royals (W) 2.41 · Heidelberg United (W) 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Essendon Royals (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.