Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: Keilor Park (W) vs Box Hill (W)

Team pages: Keilor Park (W) · Box Hill (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Keilor Park (W)0.62

Box Hill (W)2.43

1X2

7% 16% 77%

Keilor Park (W) Draw Box Hill (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Keilor Park (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDLLW

Box Hill (W) 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Keilor Park (W) 0–1 Box Hill (W) (1 last)

Box Hill (W)2-0Keilor Park (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Keilor Park (W) 1469 · Box Hill (W) 1608

	Keilor Park (W)	Draw	Box Hill (W)
Our model	7%	16%	77%
Market	8%	15%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1469 vs 1608).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Keilor Park (W)	Box Hill (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.00

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.77

Under 3.252.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:30 +8’	12.00	6.00	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Keilor Park (W) 0–0–1 Box Hill (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Keilor Park (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	24	17	3	4	63	27	54
2	Essendon Royals (W)	24	17	2	5	73	27	53
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	24	15	4	5	56	24	49
4	Avondale FC (W)	24	15	3	6	57	23	48
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	24	14	1	9	48	35	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	24	11	6	7	43	24	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	24	12	3	9	31	25	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	24	10	2	12	45	51	32
9	Heidelberg United (W)	24	8	5	11	36	45	29
10	Spring Hills FC (W)	24	8	2	14	27	38	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	24	7	5	12	29	46	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	24	7	5	12	23	40	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	24	3	2	19	22	80	11
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	24	2	1	21	22	90	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Keilor Park (W)	Box Hill (W)
South Melbourne (W)	1-0 W	2-2 D
Heidelberg United (W)	0-2 L	3-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	0-1 L	3-0 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	2-1 W	5-1 W
Avondale FC (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Bulleen Lions (W)	1-0 W	3-2 W
Alamein FC (W)	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Keilor Park (W)

LWLWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
24/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
11/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
04/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-1	9	0	W
27/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
20/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
30/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	3	5	L

Box Hill (W)

WWDDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
30/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
07/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Keilor Park (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Box Hill (W) win (77%). Probabilities: Keilor Park (W) 7%, draw 16%, Box Hill (W) 77%.

How many goals are expected in Keilor Park (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Keilor Park (W) 0.62 · Box Hill (W) 2.43), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Keilor Park (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.