Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 08/08, 07:00

Prediction: Avondale FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)

Team pages: Avondale FC (W) · South Melbourne (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Avondale FC (W)1.87

South Melbourne (W)1.51

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Avondale FC (W) Draw South Melbourne (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Avondale FC (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWWW

South Melbourne (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDLWDL

Head-to-head

Avondale FC (W) 0–2 South Melbourne (W) (2 last)

South Melbourne (W)2-1Avondale FC (W)
Avondale FC (W)1-2South Melbourne (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avondale FC (W) 1584 · South Melbourne (W) 1513

	Avondale FC (W)	Draw	South Melbourne (W)
Our model	45%	24%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avondale FC (W) (rating 1584 vs 1513).
H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avondale FC (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.7	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:31 +7’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale FC (W) 0–0–2 South Melbourne (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Avondale FC (W)
04/06/25 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Avondale FC (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	South Melbourne (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	22	16	2	4	59	24	50
2	Essendon Royals (W)	22	15	2	5	63	24	47
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	22	14	4	4	53	21	46
4	Avondale FC (W)	22	14	2	6	55	22	44
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	22	13	1	8	47	34	40
6	South Melbourne (W)	22	11	6	5	43	22	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	22	11	3	8	28	24	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	22	9	2	11	41	47	29
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	22	8	2	12	26	32	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	22	6	5	11	32	44	23
11	Preston Lions (W)	22	6	5	11	26	41	23
12	Keilor Park (W)	22	6	5	11	22	38	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	22	2	2	18	17	74	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	22	2	1	19	21	86	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avondale FC (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Heidelberg United (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Essendon Royals (W)	4-2 W	1-4 L
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bulleen Lions (W)	3-3 D	1-2 L
Alamein FC (W)	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	4-0	4-0	4	0	W
18/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
10/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
04/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	4-2	4	1	W
27/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	6-1	10	0	W
20/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
06/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
30/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-3	3	0	D
23/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
19/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-2	1-3	4	2	L

South Melbourne (W)

LWWWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
18/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	11	0	W
16/05	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avondale FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale FC (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Avondale FC (W) 45%, draw 25%, South Melbourne (W) 30%.

How many goals are expected in Avondale FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Avondale FC (W) 1.87 · South Melbourne (W) 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avondale FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.