Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 08/08, 08:00

Prediction: Bulleen Lions (W) vs Box Hill (W)

Team pages: Bulleen Lions (W) · Box Hill (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Bulleen Lions (W)1.77

Box Hill (W)1.77

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Bulleen Lions (W) Draw Box Hill (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bulleen Lions (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDLDW

Box Hill (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Bulleen Lions (W) 2–3–1 Box Hill (W) (6 last)

Box Hill (W)2-2Bulleen Lions (W)
Box Hill (W)2-2Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)1-3Box Hill (W)
Box Hill (W)1-1Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)2-1Box Hill (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)3-2Box Hill (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bulleen Lions (W) 1550 · Box Hill (W) 1605

	Bulleen Lions (W)	Draw	Box Hill (W)
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1550 vs 1605).
H2H favours Bulleen Lions (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bulleen Lions (W)	Box Hill (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.70

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:31 +8’	2.38	3.70	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bulleen Lions (W) 2–3–1 Box Hill (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/26 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Box Hill (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Bulleen Lions (W)
06/09/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Box Hill (W)
13/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
16/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Box Hill (W)
06/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	Box Hill (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	22	16	2	4	59	24	50
2	Essendon Royals (W)	22	15	2	5	63	24	47
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	22	14	4	4	53	21	46
4	Avondale FC (W)	22	14	2	6	55	22	44
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	22	13	1	8	47	34	40
6	South Melbourne (W)	22	11	6	5	43	22	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	22	11	3	8	28	24	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	22	9	2	11	41	47	29
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	22	8	2	12	26	32	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	22	6	5	11	32	44	23
11	Preston Lions (W)	22	6	5	11	26	41	23
12	Keilor Park (W)	22	6	5	11	22	38	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	22	2	2	18	17	74	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	22	2	1	19	21	86	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bulleen Lions (W)	Box Hill (W)
South Melbourne (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Heidelberg United (W)	1-1 D	3-1 W
Essendon Royals (W)	2-4 L	1-7 L
Preston Lions (W)	2-2 D	3-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	1-0 W	3-1 W
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bulleen Lions (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
18/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-2	2-4	3	3	L
10/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
03/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
30/06	Box Hill (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
27/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
20/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	5-0	7	1	W
06/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
02/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	1-0	5	0	W

Box Hill (W)

LWWWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
30/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
07/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
29/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	3-1	4	0	W
23/05	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-4	1-7	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bulleen Lions (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bulleen Lions (W) win (38%). Probabilities: Bulleen Lions (W) 38%, draw 24%, Box Hill (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in Bulleen Lions (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Bulleen Lions (W) 1.77 · Box Hill (W) 1.77), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bulleen Lions (W) vs Box Hill (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.