Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 17/07, 11:30
Prediction: Spring Hills FC (W) vs Box Hill (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Spring Hills FC (W)0.8
Box Hill (W)1.97
1X2
Spring Hills FC (W)
Draw
Box Hill (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Spring Hills FC (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Box Hill (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spring Hills FC (W)
1–2
Box Hill (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spring Hills FC (W) 1477 · Box Hill (W) 1598
| Spring Hills FC (W) | Draw | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 23% | 64% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 65% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1477 vs 1598).
- H2H favours Box Hill (W): 2-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spring Hills FC (W) | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 2.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.9 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spring Hills FC (W) 1–0–2 Box Hill (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Spring Hills FC (W) |
| 22/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Spring Hills FC (W) |
| 23/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Spring Hills FC (W) | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Box Hill (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Box Hill (W) | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 24 | 44 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Alamein FC (W) | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 35 |
| 7 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 34 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 39 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 73 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spring Hills FC (W) | Box Hill (W) |
|---|---|---|
| South Melbourne (W) | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Preston Lions (W) | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 1-2 L | 1-7 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Keilor Park (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spring Hills FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 26/06 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
Box Hill (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 1-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Box Hill (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Spring Hills FC (W) 14%, draw 21%, Box Hill (W) 64%.
How many goals are expected in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Spring Hills FC (W) 0.8 · Box Hill (W) 1.97), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.