Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 18/07, 04:00
Prediction: Avondale FC (W) vs Preston Lions (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.62Total
Avondale FC (W)2.66
Preston Lions (W)0.96
1X2
Avondale FC (W)
Draw
Preston Lions (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Avondale FC (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Preston Lions (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Avondale FC (W)
0–1–0
Preston Lions (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Avondale FC (W) 1567 · Preston Lions (W) 1474
| Avondale FC (W) | Draw | Preston Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avondale FC (W) (rating 1567 vs 1474).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Avondale FC (W) | Preston Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.1 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 1.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale FC (W) 0–1–0 Preston Lions (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Preston Lions (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Avondale FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Box Hill (W) | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 24 | 44 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Alamein FC (W) | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 35 |
| 7 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 34 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 39 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 73 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Avondale FC (W) | Preston Lions (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 3-0 W | 5-3 W |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| Alamein FC (W) | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Avondale FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 6-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 19/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Preston Lions (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 5-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Avondale FC (W) vs Preston Lions (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale FC (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Avondale FC (W) 73%, draw 17%, Preston Lions (W) 10%.
How many goals are expected in Avondale FC (W) vs Preston Lions (W)?
The model expects 3.62 goals (Avondale FC (W) 2.66 · Preston Lions (W) 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Avondale FC (W) vs Preston Lions (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.