Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 18/07, 07:00

Prediction: Alamein FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Alamein FC (W)0.98

South Melbourne (W)1.82

1X2

19% 24% 57%

Alamein FC (W) Draw South Melbourne (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alamein FC (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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South Melbourne (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alamein FC (W) 0–2–4 South Melbourne (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alamein FC (W) 1528 · South Melbourne (W) 1539

	Alamein FC (W)	Draw	South Melbourne (W)
Our model	19%	25%	56%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alamein FC (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.8 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alamein FC (W) 0–2–4 South Melbourne (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Alamein FC (W)
28/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Alamein FC (W)
29/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	South Melbourne (W)
22/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	1-5 HT 0-4	South Melbourne (W)
30/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	2-2 HT 0-1	Alamein FC (W)
15/07/23 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	3-3 HT 2-1	South Melbourne (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	20	14	2	4	56	24	44
2	Bulleen Lions (W)	20	13	3	4	50	19	42
3	Essendon Royals (W)	20	13	2	5	54	23	41
4	Avondale FC (W)	20	12	2	6	48	22	38
5	South Melbourne (W)	20	11	5	4	41	19	38
6	Alamein FC (W)	20	11	2	7	27	21	35
7	Boroondara Eagles (W)	20	11	1	8	41	31	34
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	19	8	2	9	33	36	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	20	8	2	10	25	29	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	20	6	4	10	31	39	22
11	Keilor Park (W)	20	6	4	10	21	36	22
12	Preston Lions (W)	20	5	5	10	25	38	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	19	2	1	16	19	75	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	20	1	1	18	14	73	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alamein FC (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Heidelberg United (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Essendon Royals (W)	0-2 L	1-4 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	2-1 W	9-2 W
Keilor Park (W)	3-0 W	0-0 D
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alamein FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
04/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
06/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
30/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	2	5	W
23/05	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
16/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
13/05	Bundoora Utd (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
09/05	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	4	1	W

South Melbourne (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	11	0	W
16/05	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
09/05	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	7-1	9-2	10	1	W
02/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alamein FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South Melbourne (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Alamein FC (W) 19%, draw 24%, South Melbourne (W) 57%.

How many goals are expected in Alamein FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Alamein FC (W) 0.98 · South Melbourne (W) 1.82), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alamein FC (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.