Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 18/07, 07:00
Prediction: Keilor Park (W) vs Bentleigh Greens (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Keilor Park (W)1.92
Bentleigh Greens (W)1.13
1X2
Keilor Park (W)
Draw
Bentleigh Greens (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Keilor Park (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Bentleigh Greens (W)
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Keilor Park (W)
1–0
Bentleigh Greens (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keilor Park (W) 1492 · Bentleigh Greens (W) 1398
| Keilor Park (W) | Draw | Bentleigh Greens (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keilor Park (W) (rating 1492 vs 1398).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keilor Park (W) | Bentleigh Greens (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 0.7 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.6 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keilor Park (W) 1–0–0 Bentleigh Greens (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Keilor Park (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Box Hill (W) | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 24 | 44 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Alamein FC (W) | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 35 |
| 7 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 34 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 39 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 73 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keilor Park (W) | Bentleigh Greens (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Avondale FC (W) | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Alamein FC (W) | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 2-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Box Hill (W) | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| South Melbourne (W) | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Keilor Park (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keilor Park (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Bentleigh Greens (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 26/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keilor Park (W) vs Bentleigh Greens (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Keilor Park (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Keilor Park (W) 55%, draw 23%, Bentleigh Greens (W) 21%.
How many goals are expected in Keilor Park (W) vs Bentleigh Greens (W)?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Keilor Park (W) 1.92 · Bentleigh Greens (W) 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Keilor Park (W) vs Bentleigh Greens (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.