Prediction: Box Hill (W) vs Boroondara Eagles (W)
Expected goals: 3.68 (Box Hill (W) 2.39 · Boroondara Eagles (W) 1.29). The model gives 61% home, 21% draw, 18% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Box Hill (W) with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Boroondara Eagles (W) has piled up 5-0-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Box Hill (W) won 3 and Boroondara Eagles (W) 2, with 1 draw.
| Box Hill (W) | Draw | Boroondara Eagles (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1560 vs 1513).
- H2H favours Box Hill (W): 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Box Hill (W) | Boroondara Eagles (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill (W) 3–1–2 Boroondara Eagles (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Box Hill (W) |
| 27/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
| 29/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Box Hill (W) |
| 26/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
| 11/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Box Hill (W) |
| 17/06/23 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 7-0 HT 2-0 | Box Hill (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Box Hill (W) | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 41 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 23 | 38 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 22 | 35 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 34 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 37 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 35 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 19 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 70 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Box Hill (W) | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 5-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| South Melbourne (W) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 1-7 L | 0-4 L |
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Keilor Park (W) | 2-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Avondale FC (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Box Hill (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 1-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
Boroondara Eagles (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Box Hill (W) vs Boroondara Eagles (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Box Hill (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Box Hill (W) 61%, draw 21%, Boroondara Eagles (W) 18%.
How many goals are expected in Box Hill (W) vs Boroondara Eagles (W)?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Box Hill (W) 2.39 · Boroondara Eagles (W) 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Box Hill (W) vs Boroondara Eagles (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.