Prediction: Essendon Royals (W) vs Keilor Park (W)
Expected goals: 4.13 (Essendon Royals (W) 2.87 · Keilor Park (W) 1.26). The model gives 69% home, 17% draw, 13% away. Over 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Essendon Royals (W) with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Keilor Park (W) has piled up 4-1-5 in the same span. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 1 wins for Essendon Royals (W) and 0 for Keilor Park (W).
| Essendon Royals (W) | Draw | Keilor Park (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1566 vs 1474).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Essendon Royals (W) | Keilor Park (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.3 | 2.2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals (W) 1–0–0 Keilor Park (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Keilor Park (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Essendon Royals (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Box Hill (W) | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 41 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals (W) | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 23 | 38 |
| 4 | Avondale FC (W) | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 22 | 35 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 34 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 26 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 37 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 22 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 35 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 19 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 75 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 19 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 70 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Essendon Royals (W) | Keilor Park (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Avondale FC (W) | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Alamein FC (W) | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 4-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Box Hill (W) | 7-1 W | 0-2 L |
| South Melbourne (W) | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
Keilor Park (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals (W) 69%, draw 17%, Keilor Park (W) 13%.
How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?
The model expects 4.13 goals (Essendon Royals (W) 2.87 · Keilor Park (W) 1.26), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Essendon Royals (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.