Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

FC Flora Tallinn2.29

Harju JK Laagri1.07

1X2

64% 21% 16%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 5–1 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn5-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri2-0FC Flora Tallinn
Harju JK Laagri1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn3-1Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-3FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn4-1Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1533 · Harju JK Laagri 1479

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	64%	21%	16%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1533 vs 1479).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.8	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.40	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 5–0–1 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	5-0 HT 4-0	Harju JK Laagri
22/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
04/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
16/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
09/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
22/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	4-1 HT 2-1	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	19	12	0	7	39	21	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	20	10	5	5	33	16	35
4	Paide Linnameeskond	20	9	5	6	32	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	20	8	2	10	28	38	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	20	8	1	11	39	46	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	20	8	1	11	30	34	25
9	FC Kuressaare	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
10	JK Trans Narva	20	4	1	15	15	47	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	Harju JK Laagri
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	1-3 L
FC Kuressaare	3-0 W	2-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	5-2 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	T.N.S. UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
14/07	FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-2	2-2	9	4	D
08/07	FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W
13/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
29/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	10	5	W

Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Rae Spordikool Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
13/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
30/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
20/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (64%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 64%, draw 21%, Harju JK Laagri 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.36 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.29 · Harju JK Laagri 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.