Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/08, 16:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

JK Nomme Kalju1.99

JK Tammeka Tartu0.96

1X2

61% 23% 17%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDWWDDL

JK Tammeka Tartu 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 4–1–1 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju2-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju2-2JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1533 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1531

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	1.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	1.48	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 4–1–1 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
03/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 HT 1-3	JK Nomme Kalju
10/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
16/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-2 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	19	12	0	7	39	21	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	20	10	5	5	33	16	35
4	Paide Linnameeskond	20	9	5	6	32	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	20	8	2	10	28	38	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	20	8	1	11	39	46	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	20	8	1	11	30	34	25
9	FC Kuressaare	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
10	JK Trans Narva	20	4	1	15	15	47	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	1-0 W
JK Nomme United	3-1 W	3-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme Kalju

LDLDDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-3	2-5	2	1	L
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
16/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
30/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

LWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Tallinna FC Zealot Sporting Estonia Cup	9-0	19-0	12	0	W
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
08/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
25/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (61%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 61%, draw 23%, JK Tammeka Tartu 17%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 2.94 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 1.99 · JK Tammeka Tartu 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.