Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/08, 18:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Parnu JK Vaprus0.96

FC Levadia Tallinn2.79

1X2

10% 16% 75%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 1–1–4 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus1-6FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1Parnu JK Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn3-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn1-3Parnu JK Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn2-2Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1501 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1620

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	10%	16%	75%
Market	9%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1501 vs 1620).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	3.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	4.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	9.50	5.50	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 1–1–4 FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-6 HT 1-4	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-2 HT 1-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
26/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-3 HT 0-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
22/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-3 HT 0-3	Parnu JK Vaprus
28/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	19	12	0	7	39	21	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	20	10	5	5	33	16	35
4	Paide Linnameeskond	20	9	5	6	32	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	20	8	2	10	28	38	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	20	8	1	11	39	46	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	20	8	1	11	30	34	25
9	FC Kuressaare	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
10	JK Trans Narva	20	4	1	15	15	47	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	FC Levadia Tallinn
JK Trans Narva	1-3 L	3-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 L	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Tabasalu Ulasabat CF Estonia Cup	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
26/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
13/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
24/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-4	1-6	1	2	L
16/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W

FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	IFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
09/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	6	5	W
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W
13/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
24/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	4-1	6-1	14	2	W
17/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (75%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 10%, draw 16%, FC Levadia Tallinn 75%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 0.96 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.79), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.