Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FC Kuressaare1.43

Harju JK Laagri1.56

1X2

34% 26% 40%

FC Kuressaare Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLDWL

Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 1–1–4 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

Harju JK Laagri2-3FC Kuressaare
Harju JK Laagri2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-3Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri2-0FC Kuressaare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1469 · Harju JK Laagri 1505

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	34%	27%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Harju JK Laagri: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +6’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 1–1–4 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-3 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
17/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
09/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-3 HT 1-3	Harju JK Laagri
29/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare
16/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri
25/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Harju JK Laagri	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	20	14	5	1	50	17	47
2	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
3	JK Nomme Kalju	21	11	5	5	38	17	38
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	21	8	1	12	40	48	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	21	8	1	12	30	35	25
9	FC Kuressaare	21	5	3	13	19	34	18
10	JK Trans Narva	21	5	1	15	17	48	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	Harju JK Laagri
Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 L	5-2 W
JK Nomme Kalju	0-0 D	0-1 L
JK Nomme United	2-3 L	1-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn	0-3 L	0-1 L
JK Trans Narva	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Harju JK Laagri (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kuressaare

WDWDLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
23/07	Tartu JK Welco X Estonia Cup	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W
31/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W

Harju JK Laagri

LWLLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/07	Rae Spordikool Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
13/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
30/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
20/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Harju JK Laagri win (40%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 34%, draw 26%, Harju JK Laagri 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.43 · Harju JK Laagri 1.56), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.