Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/08, 16:00

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Paide Linnameeskond1.92

FC Kuressaare0.82

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWDWLW

FC Kuressaare 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 3–3–0 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond1-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-1Paide Linnameeskond
FC Kuressaare1-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond5-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-1FC Kuressaare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1534 · FC Kuressaare 1452

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	62%	23%	14%
Market	63%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1534 vs 1452).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	1.40	4.20	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 3–3–0 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-1 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
04/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-1 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
16/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	5-1 HT 3-1	FC Kuressaare
13/08/25 Estonia Cup	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond
04/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	19	12	0	7	39	21	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	20	10	5	5	33	16	35
4	Paide Linnameeskond	20	9	5	6	32	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	20	8	2	10	28	38	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	20	8	1	11	39	46	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	20	8	1	11	30	34	25
9	FC Kuressaare	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
10	JK Trans Narva	20	4	1	15	15	47	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	FC Kuressaare
Harju JK Laagri	2-5 L	3-2 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Paide Linnameeskond

DDWWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Zira IK UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
16/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
09/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
31/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

FC Kuressaare

LWDWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Tartu JK Welco X Estonia Cup	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W
31/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (63%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 63%, draw 22%, FC Kuressaare 15%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 1.92 · FC Kuressaare 0.82), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.