Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 08/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

JK Trans Narva0.88

JK Nomme Kalju1.92

1X2

16% 22% 62%

JK Trans Narva Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWDW

JK Nomme Kalju 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDDLWW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 1–1–4 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Trans Narva0-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju2-1JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva0-0JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-2JK Trans Narva
JK Nomme Kalju2-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-2JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1472 · JK Nomme Kalju 1548

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	16%	24%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1472 vs 1548).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:24 +4’	5.25	4.33	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 1–1–4 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-3 HT 0-2	JK Nomme Kalju
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva
17/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
17/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
15/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
19/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	20	14	5	1	50	17	47
2	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
3	JK Nomme Kalju	21	11	5	5	38	17	38
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	21	8	1	12	40	48	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	21	8	1	12	30	35	25
9	FC Kuressaare	21	5	3	13	19	34	18
10	JK Trans Narva	21	5	1	15	17	48	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-3 L	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	5-1 W
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Trans Narva

LWLDLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
22/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
10/06	Vana Hea Puur FC Estonia Cup	4-0	10-0	–	–	W
30/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L

JK Nomme Kalju

LDDWWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
30/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
23/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-3	2-5	2	1	L
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
16/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme Kalju win (62%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 16%, draw 22%, JK Nomme Kalju 62%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 2.81 goals (JK Trans Narva 0.88 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.92), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.