Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FC Flora Tallinn2.03

FC Kuressaare0.87

1X2

64% 21% 15%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Kuressaare 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 6–0 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

FC Kuressaare0-3FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Flora Tallinn2-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Kuressaare1-3FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn5-0FC Kuressaare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1531 · FC Kuressaare 1487

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	63%	22%	14%
Market	65%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1531 vs 1487).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	2.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38
X	5.25 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.46
2	7.50 → 5.75▼	Pinn 8.00 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +2’	1.25	5.25	7.50
16:24 +10’	1.36▲	4.50▼	6.00▼
17:31 +5’	1.25▼	5.25▲	7.50▲
19:26 +8’	1.38▲	4.50▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15 +1’	1.37	4.72	6.31
10:36 +1’	1.32▼	5.29▲	7.61▲
12:05	1.30▼	5.46▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 6–0–0 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
07/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
01/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
24/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
27/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
29/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	5-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	21	15	5	1	55	17	50
2	JK Nomme Kalju	22	12	5	5	40	17	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	22	8	1	13	40	53	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	22	8	1	13	32	38	25
9	FC Kuressaare	22	6	3	13	22	36	21
10	JK Trans Narva	22	5	1	16	17	50	16

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	FC Kuressaare
Harju JK Laagri	1-0 W	3-2 W
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	2-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Inter Club d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
30/07	T.N.S. UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
23/07	T.N.S. UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
14/07	FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-2	2-2	9	4	D
08/07	FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

FC Kuressaare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Kristiine JK Estonia Cup	4-0	8-0	8	0	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
23/07	Tartu JK Welco X Estonia Cup	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (64%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 64%, draw 21%, FC Kuressaare 15%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.03 · FC Kuressaare 0.87), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.