Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: JK Nomme United · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

JK Nomme United2.11

JK Tammeka Tartu1.96

1X2

41% 23% 36%

JK Nomme United Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWLL

JK Tammeka Tartu 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 0–1–5 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu3-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United2-3JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme United0-6JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme United1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-1JK Nomme United
JK Tammeka Tartu2-1JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1469 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1568

	JK Nomme United	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	42%	22%	36%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1469 vs 1568).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.1	3.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +1’	2.20	3.70	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 0–1–5 JK Tammeka Tartu

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	2-3 HT 2-2	JK Tammeka Tartu
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Nomme United	0-6 HT 0-5	JK Tammeka Tartu
09/11/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
11/08/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme United
04/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	21	15	5	1	55	17	50
2	JK Nomme Kalju	22	12	5	5	40	17	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	22	8	1	13	40	53	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	22	8	1	13	32	38	25
9	FC Kuressaare	22	6	3	13	22	36	21
10	JK Trans Narva	22	5	1	16	17	50	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Kuressaare	3-2 W	1-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	1-5 L
Harju JK Laagri	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme United

LWLWLWWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
23/07	Raplamaa Estonia Cup	6-0	12-0	–	–	W
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
03/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
17/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	2	5	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

WWDWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Rumori Calcio Estonia Cup	0-0	1-0	15	2	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
24/07	Tallinna FC Zealot Sporting Estonia Cup	9-0	19-0	12	0	W
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
08/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme United win (41%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 41%, draw 23%, JK Tammeka Tartu 36%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 4.07 goals (JK Nomme United 2.11 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.96), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.