Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Harju JK Laagri0.98

FC Levadia Tallinn2.46

1X2

13% 18% 69%

Harju JK Laagri Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWLLW

FC Levadia Tallinn 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 0–1–5 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn3-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
Harju JK Laagri2-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-1FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn5-0Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1470 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1577

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	12%	19%	69%
Market	13%	18%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1470 vs 1577).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 15.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	4.9 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.00

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.80

2 (-1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.92
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.80 ★
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +2’	7.00	5.00	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15	7.49	5.56	1.26
10:36 +1’	7.92▲	5.80▲	1.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 0–1–5 FC Levadia Tallinn

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
19/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
31/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
28/02/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	5-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	21	15	5	1	55	17	50
2	JK Nomme Kalju	22	12	5	5	40	17	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	22	8	1	13	40	53	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	22	8	1	13	32	38	25
9	FC Kuressaare	22	6	3	13	22	36	21
10	JK Trans Narva	22	5	1	16	17	50	16

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 L	1-2 L
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	3-1 W
JK Nomme United	1-3 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Harju JK Laagri

LLLLWWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	FC Tamper Estonia Cup	2-1	3-1	10	2	W
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/07	Rae Spordikool Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
13/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	8	3	L

FC Levadia Tallinn

WDLWWWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
30/07	IFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
21/07	IFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
09/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	6	5	W
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (69%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 13%, draw 18%, FC Levadia Tallinn 69%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Harju JK Laagri 0.98 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.46), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.