Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

JK Trans Narva0.98

Paide Linnameeskond1.65

1X2

22% 25% 53%

JK Trans Narva Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLWDWL

Paide Linnameeskond 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWDWL

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 2–1–3 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

JK Trans Narva1-0Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-1Paide Linnameeskond
JK Trans Narva2-3Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond2-0JK Trans Narva
Paide Linnameeskond0-1JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1456 · Paide Linnameeskond 1539

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1456 vs 1539).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.70

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +6’	4.00	3.70	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 2–1–3 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-0 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
07/02/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	1-1 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond
27/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	2-3 HT 0-3	Paide Linnameeskond
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva
31/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	21	15	5	1	55	17	50
2	JK Nomme Kalju	22	12	5	5	40	17	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	22	8	1	13	40	53	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	22	8	1	13	32	38	25
9	FC Kuressaare	22	6	3	13	22	36	21
10	JK Trans Narva	22	5	1	16	17	50	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	Paide Linnameeskond
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	1-1 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-3 L	2-5 L
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Trans Narva

WLDLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
22/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
10/06	Vana Hea Puur FC Estonia Cup	4-0	10-0	–	–	W

Paide Linnameeskond

WDWDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Rapid Vienna UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/07	Zira IK UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
23/07	Zira IK UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
16/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
09/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnameeskond win (53%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 22%, draw 25%, Paide Linnameeskond 53%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 2.63 goals (JK Trans Narva 0.98 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.65), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.