Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

JK Nomme Kalju2.19

Parnu JK Vaprus0.97

1X2

64% 21% 15%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDLWWW

Parnu JK Vaprus 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLWLWD

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 2–1–3 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus3-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme Kalju1-0Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme Kalju1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-2JK Nomme Kalju
Parnu JK Vaprus0-3JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1534 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1512

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +1’	1.40	4.33	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 2–1–3 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju
26/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
05/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
10/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
27/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju
01/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-3 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	21	15	5	1	55	17	50
2	JK Nomme Kalju	22	12	5	5	40	17	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn	20	13	0	7	40	21	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	21	10	5	6	33	28	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	21	8	3	10	29	39	27
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	19	8	2	9	22	31	26
7	JK Nomme United	22	8	1	13	40	53	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	22	8	1	13	32	38	25
9	FC Kuressaare	22	6	3	13	22	36	21
10	JK Trans Narva	22	5	1	16	17	50	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Trans Narva	2-0 W	1-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	5-1 W	5-1 W
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	1-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme Kalju

DDWWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
30/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
23/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-3	2-5	2	1	L
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
16/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Parnu JK Vaprus

LWDLWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
21/07	Tabasalu Ulasabat CF Estonia Cup	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
26/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
13/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
24/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-4	1-6	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (64%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 64%, draw 21%, Parnu JK Vaprus 15%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.16 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 2.19 · Parnu JK Vaprus 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.