Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 23/08, 18:00
Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn
Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · FC Flora Tallinn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Parnu JK Vaprus1.19
FC Flora Tallinn2.19
1X2
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw
FC Flora Tallinn
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Parnu JK Vaprus
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
FC Flora Tallinn
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Parnu JK Vaprus
0–1–5
FC Flora Tallinn
(6 last)
- Parnu JK Vaprus1-2FC Flora Tallinn
- FC Flora Tallinn2-0Parnu JK Vaprus
- Parnu JK Vaprus2-2FC Flora Tallinn
- Parnu JK Vaprus0-3FC Flora Tallinn
- FC Flora Tallinn3-0Parnu JK Vaprus
- Parnu JK Vaprus0-3FC Flora Tallinn
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1491 · FC Flora Tallinn 1492
| Parnu JK Vaprus | Draw | FC Flora Tallinn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parnu JK Vaprus | FC Flora Tallinn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3 | 4.2 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 0–1–5 FC Flora Tallinn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 12/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 17/01/26 Europe Friendlies | Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 13/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 02/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Flora Tallinn |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | JK Nomme Kalju | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn | 21 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 24 | 39 |
| 4 | Paide Linnameeskond | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 36 |
| 5 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 31 | 32 |
| 6 | Harju JK Laagri | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 40 | 28 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 42 | 27 |
| 8 | JK Nomme United | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 40 | 54 | 25 |
| 9 | FC Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Parnu JK Vaprus | FC Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| JK Trans Narva | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Paide Linnameeskond | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Kuressaare | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parnu JK Vaprus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/06 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-4 | 1-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
FC Flora Tallinn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-3 | 2-3 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/05 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn win (59%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 19%, draw 22%, FC Flora Tallinn 59%.
How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.19 · FC Flora Tallinn 2.19), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.