Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.68

JK Trans Narva0.68

1X2

81% 13% 7%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWLDWW

JK Trans Narva 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn7-0JK Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva0-4FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-1JK Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1596 · JK Trans Narva 1456

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	82%	11%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1596 vs 1456).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 8.7	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14
X	8.50 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00
2	13.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +18’	1.13	8.50	13.00
20:19 +8’	1.14▲	8.00▼	11.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	7-0 HT 4-0	JK Trans Narva
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-4 HT 0-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
29/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-1 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva
27/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	22	16	5	1	57	18	53
2	JK Nomme Kalju	23	13	5	5	43	18	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	21	13	0	8	42	24	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	22	10	6	6	34	29	36
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	20	9	2	9	23	31	29
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	22	8	3	11	30	42	27
7	JK Nomme United	23	8	1	14	40	54	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	23	8	1	14	33	40	25
9	FC Kuressaare	23	7	3	13	25	38	24
10	JK Trans Narva	23	5	2	16	18	51	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Trans Narva
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	0-3 L
JK Nomme United	5-0 W	2-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-1 D	3-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Levadia Tallinn

DLWWWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
30/07	IFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
21/07	IFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
09/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	6	5	W
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D

JK Trans Narva

DLLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
11/08	Marjamaa Kompanii Estonia Cup	4-0	8-0	–	–	W
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
22/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (81%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 81%, draw 13%, JK Trans Narva 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 3.36 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.68 · JK Trans Narva 0.68), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.