Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

JK Nomme Kalju2.06

Harju JK Laagri1.18

1X2

57% 22% 21%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLLWW

Harju JK Laagri 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLLWD

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 5–1 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

Harju JK Laagri1-0JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-2JK Nomme Kalju
Harju JK Laagri1-3JK Nomme Kalju
Harju JK Laagri2-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-0Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1552 · Harju JK Laagri 1507

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1552 vs 1507).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:52 +16’	1.57	4.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 5–0–1 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
20/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri
08/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
19/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-3 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju
24/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-3 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju
18/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	22	6	1	81	21	72
2	FC Flora Tallinn	29	18	1	10	59	39	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	29	15	5	9	52	27	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	29	14	2	13	37	47	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39	57	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	29	5	4	20	22	65	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	Harju JK Laagri
JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 W	0-2 L
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	2-3 L	1-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	2-3 L
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju

DWWWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Harju JK Laagri

WLLLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
09/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (57%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 57%, draw 22%, Harju JK Laagri 21%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.24 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 2.06 · Harju JK Laagri 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.