Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 17/07, 18:00
Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.89Total
FC Flora Tallinn2.74
JK Nomme United1.15
1X2
FC Flora Tallinn
Draw
JK Nomme United
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Flora Tallinn
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
JK Nomme United
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Flora Tallinn
5–1–0
JK Nomme United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1563 · JK Nomme United 1462
| FC Flora Tallinn | Draw | JK Nomme United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1563 vs 1462).
- H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Flora Tallinn | JK Nomme United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Nomme United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme United | 0-4 HT 0-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 10/03/26 Estonia Cup | FC Flora Tallinn | 3-1 HT 0-1 | JK Nomme United |
| 07/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 3-0 HT 2-0 | JK Nomme United |
| 05/10/24 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme United | 0-4 HT 0-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 18/08/24 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 1-0 HT 0-0 | JK Nomme United |
| 29/06/24 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | JK Nomme Kalju | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | Paide Linnameeskond | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 32 |
| 5 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 35 | 26 |
| 6 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 26 |
| 7 | JK Nomme United | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 45 | 22 |
| 8 | Harju JK Laagri | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Kuressaare | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 19 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Flora Tallinn | JK Nomme United |
|---|---|---|
| FC Kuressaare | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Paide Linnameeskond | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| JK Trans Narva | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Flora Tallinn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/07 | FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/07 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/05 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Cup |
2-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
JK Nomme United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (70%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 70%, draw 17%, JK Nomme United 13%.
How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme United?
The model expects 3.89 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.74 · JK Nomme United 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme United?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.