Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu
Expected goals: 3.06 (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.5 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.56). The model gives 35% home, 27% draw, 38% away. Over 2.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Parnu JK Vaprus sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while JK Tammeka Tartu arrives on a 5-2-3 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Parnu JK Vaprus and 0 for JK Tammeka Tartu, with 2 draws.
| Parnu JK Vaprus | Draw | JK Tammeka Tartu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parnu JK Vaprus | JK Tammeka Tartu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 4–2–0 JK Tammeka Tartu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Tammeka Tartu | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-0 HT 0-0 | JK Tammeka Tartu |
| 16/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Tammeka Tartu | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 15/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 8-1 HT 4-0 | JK Tammeka Tartu |
| 17/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-1 HT 1-0 | JK Tammeka Tartu |
| 29/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Tammeka Tartu | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | JK Nomme Kalju | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | Paide Linnameeskond | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 32 |
| 5 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | 23 |
| 7 | JK Nomme United | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 43 | 19 |
| 8 | Harju JK Laagri | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | FC Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | 17 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Parnu JK Vaprus | JK Tammeka Tartu |
|---|---|---|
| Paide Linnameeskond | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Kuressaare | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| JK Nomme Kalju | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Harju JK Laagri | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| JK Trans Narva | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| JK Nomme United | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parnu JK Vaprus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/06 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-4 | 1-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
JK Tammeka Tartu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 17/06 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu?
According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Tammeka Tartu win (38%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 35%, draw 27%, JK Tammeka Tartu 38%.
How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.5 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Tammeka Tartu?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.