Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
JK Trans Narva1.44
Parnu JK Vaprus1.48
1X2
JK Trans Narva
Draw
Parnu JK Vaprus
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
JK Trans Narva
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Parnu JK Vaprus
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
JK Trans Narva
3–2–1
Parnu JK Vaprus
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1451 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1485
| JK Trans Narva | Draw | Parnu JK Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours JK Trans Narva: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JK Trans Narva | Parnu JK Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.1 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 3–2–1 Parnu JK Vaprus
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-0 HT 1-0 | JK Trans Narva |
| 21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Trans Narva | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 15/02/26 Europe Friendlies | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-2 HT 0-0 | JK Trans Narva |
| 18/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Trans Narva | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 12/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-0 HT 0-0 | JK Trans Narva |
| 11/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Trans Narva | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | JK Nomme Kalju | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | Paide Linnameeskond | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 32 |
| 5 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 35 | 26 |
| 6 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 26 |
| 7 | JK Nomme United | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 45 | 22 |
| 8 | Harju JK Laagri | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Kuressaare | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 19 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | JK Trans Narva | Parnu JK Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Harju JK Laagri | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-3 L | 1-6 L |
| JK Tammeka Tartu | 0-1 L | 5-1 W |
| FC Kuressaare | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Paide Linnameeskond | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Flora Tallinn | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JK Trans Narva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 16/06 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Vana Hea Puur FC Estonia Cup |
4-0 | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Parnu JK Vaprus
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/06 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-4 | 1-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Parnu JK Vaprus win (38%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 36%, draw 27%, Parnu JK Vaprus 38%.
How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
The model expects 2.92 goals (JK Trans Narva 1.44 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.48), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.