Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 19/07, 16:00

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

FC Kuressaare0.85

JK Nomme Kalju1.73

1X2

18% 24% 58%

FC Kuressaare Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWDLLL

JK Nomme Kalju 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDDWWD

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 0–6 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1424 · JK Nomme Kalju 1548

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	17%	26%	57%
Market	19%	22%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1424 vs 1548).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 4.98
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.27 ★
2	1.40 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +34’	6.00	4.20	1.40
05:13 +2’	4.75▼	4.00▼	1.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:14	4.98	4.27	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 0–0–6 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Kuressaare
25/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
31/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
18/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Kuressaare
12/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-2 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	18	12	0	6	38	19	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	19	10	4	5	33	16	34
4	Paide Linnameeskond	19	9	5	5	30	23	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	19	8	2	9	27	35	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	19	7	1	11	37	45	22
8	Harju JK Laagri	19	7	1	11	25	32	22
9	FC Kuressaare	19	5	2	12	19	33	17
10	JK Trans Narva	19	3	1	15	12	46	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme United	2-3 L	3-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 L	1-3 L
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	1-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kuressaare

LLLWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W
31/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
08/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
02/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	0	3	L

JK Nomme Kalju

WWLDLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
30/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
20/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
17/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme Kalju win (58%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 18%, draw 24%, JK Nomme Kalju 58%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 2.58 goals (FC Kuressaare 0.85 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.73), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.