Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 19/07, 18:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Harju JK Laagri0.95

Paide Linnameeskond1.86

1X2

18% 23% 58%

Harju JK Laagri Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Paide Linnameeskond 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 1–2–3 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1438 · Paide Linnameeskond 1514

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	18%	25%	58%
Market	19%	22%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1438 vs 1514).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.33
2	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +35’	4.75	4.00	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:14 +1’	3.39	4.20	1.77
06:16	3.57▲	4.33▲	1.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 1–2–3 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	3-0 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond
03/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri
17/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri
12/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	18	12	0	6	38	19	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	19	10	4	5	33	16	34
4	Paide Linnameeskond	19	9	5	5	30	23	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	19	8	2	9	27	35	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	19	7	1	11	37	45	22
8	Harju JK Laagri	19	7	1	11	25	32	22
9	FC Kuressaare	19	5	2	12	19	33	17
10	JK Trans Narva	19	3	1	15	12	46	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	Paide Linnameeskond
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	0-1 L
FC Kuressaare	2-3 L	1-1 D
JK Nomme Kalju	0-1 L	1-1 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-2 L	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	0-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
13/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
30/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
20/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
09/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
30/04	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-4	0-5	0	1	L

Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
09/07	Hegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
31/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Cup	0-2	1-5	2	2	L
20/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnameeskond win (58%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 18%, draw 23%, Paide Linnameeskond 58%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Harju JK Laagri 0.95 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.86), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.