Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

JK Nomme United2.15

JK Trans Narva1.55

1X2

50% 23% 27%

JK Nomme United Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWWW

JK Trans Narva 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLWD

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 3–3 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva1-2JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United5-1JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva3-4JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva2-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United1-3JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1529 · JK Trans Narva 1451

	JK Nomme United	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	50%	22%	27%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme United (rating 1529 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +1’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 3–0–3 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme United
11/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	5-1 HT 2-1	JK Trans Narva
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	3-4 HT 0-2	JK Nomme United
21/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-2	JK Trans Narva
26/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	2-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
23/05/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-3 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	19	12	0	7	39	21	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	20	10	5	5	33	16	35
4	Paide Linnameeskond	20	9	5	6	32	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	20	8	2	10	28	38	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	20	8	1	11	39	46	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	20	8	1	11	30	34	25
9	FC Kuressaare	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
10	JK Trans Narva	20	4	1	15	15	47	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	JK Trans Narva
FC Kuressaare	3-2 W	0-0 D
Harju JK Laagri	3-1 W	0-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	1-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme United

LLLWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Raplamaa Estonia Cup	6-0	12-0	–	–	W
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
03/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
17/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
20/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
15/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	4	L

JK Trans Narva

WLWLDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
10/06	Vana Hea Puur FC Estonia Cup	4-0	10-0	–	–	W
30/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
20/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme United win (50%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 50%, draw 23%, JK Trans Narva 27%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 3.7 goals (JK Nomme United 2.15 · JK Trans Narva 1.55), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.