Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 15/08, 20:00

Prediction: Fluminense RJ (W) vs America MG (W)

Team pages: Fluminense RJ (W) · America MG (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Fluminense RJ (W)2

America MG (W)0.58

1X2

71% 19% 9%

Fluminense RJ (W) Draw America MG (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Fluminense RJ (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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America MG (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fluminense RJ (W) 2–1 America MG (W) (3 last)

America MG (W)3-1Fluminense RJ (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)1-0America MG (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)2-1America MG (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fluminense RJ (W) 1526 · America MG (W) 1442

	Fluminense RJ (W)	Draw	America MG (W)
Our model	70%	21%	9%
Market	72%	18%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense RJ (W) (rating 1526 vs 1442).
H2H favours Fluminense RJ (W): 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fluminense RJ (W)	America MG (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.1 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.33 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:35 +8’	1.27	5.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:14 +2’	1.33	4.49	8.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense RJ (W) 2–0–1 America MG (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	America MG (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Fluminense RJ (W)
17/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG (W)
16/04/23 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	America MG (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	15	12	1	2	40	14	37
2	Sao Paulo (W)	15	11	2	2	25	10	35
3	Palmeiras (W)	15	9	5	1	29	11	32
4	Bahia (W)	15	8	3	4	27	18	27
5	Ferroviaria (W)	15	7	6	2	20	12	27
6	Gremio (W)	15	7	3	5	22	14	24
7	Internacional (W)	15	7	3	5	17	14	24
8	Cruzeiro (W)	15	6	6	3	28	18	24
9	Flamengo (W)	15	6	6	3	22	17	24
10	Fluminense RJ (W)	15	6	4	5	18	17	22
11	Bragantino (W)	15	6	2	7	22	23	20
12	Santos (W)	15	5	5	5	18	19	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	15	3	4	8	14	21	13
14	Mixto EC (W)	15	2	6	7	9	24	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	15	2	4	9	7	17	10
16	America MG (W)	15	1	4	10	7	28	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	15	1	4	10	12	37	7
18	Botafogo (W)	15	1	2	12	9	32	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fluminense RJ (W)	America MG (W)
Botafogo (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Cruzeiro (W)	2-1 W	0-4 L
Flamengo (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Santos (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Atletico Mineiro (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: America MG (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fluminense RJ (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
01/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
25/07	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
21/07	Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
28/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
23/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-3	5	4	D
16/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
09/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
01/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
26/04	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

America MG (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
01/08	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/07	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
28/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-2	2	5	L
09/05	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
02/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
27/04	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/04	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-3	1-4	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fluminense RJ (W) vs America MG (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense RJ (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Fluminense RJ (W) 71%, draw 19%, America MG (W) 9%.

How many goals are expected in Fluminense RJ (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Fluminense RJ (W) 2 · America MG (W) 0.58), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fluminense RJ (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.