Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 22/08, 23:00

Prediction: Ferroviaria (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)

Team pages: Ferroviaria (W) · Fluminense RJ (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Ferroviaria (W)1.89

Fluminense RJ (W)0.79

1X2

62% 24% 14%

Ferroviaria (W) Draw Fluminense RJ (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWDDW

Fluminense RJ (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria (W) 1–1–0 Fluminense RJ (W) (2 last)

Fluminense RJ (W)1-1Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)2-1Fluminense RJ (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria (W) 1585 · Fluminense RJ (W) 1538

	Ferroviaria (W)	Draw	Fluminense RJ (W)
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	62%	24%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria (W) (rating 1585 vs 1538).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria (W)	Fluminense RJ (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.3	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.80

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.06
2	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +7’	1.44	3.80	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:10	1.40	4.10	7.60
22:59 +2’	1.40▲	4.06▼	7.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria (W) 1–1–0 Fluminense RJ (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Ferroviaria (W)
14/04/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Ferroviaria (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Fluminense RJ (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	16	12	2	2	41	15	38
2	Sao Paulo (W)	16	12	2	2	30	11	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	16	10	5	1	32	11	35
4	Ferroviaria (W)	16	8	6	2	22	13	30
5	Bahia (W)	16	8	4	4	28	19	28
6	Cruzeiro (W)	16	7	6	3	30	19	27
7	Flamengo (W)	16	7	6	3	25	19	27
8	Fluminense RJ (W)	16	7	4	5	22	18	25
9	Gremio (W)	16	7	3	6	22	16	24
10	Internacional (W)	16	7	3	6	18	16	24
11	Bragantino (W)	16	7	2	7	28	25	23
12	Santos (W)	16	5	5	6	20	22	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	16	4	4	8	16	21	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	16	2	6	8	10	26	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	16	2	4	10	7	20	10
16	America MG (W)	16	1	4	11	8	32	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	16	1	4	11	14	43	7
18	Botafogo (W)	16	1	2	13	10	37	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria (W)	Fluminense RJ (W)
Internacional (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Bragantino (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Bahia (W)	1-0 W	3-3 D
Atletico Mineiro (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviaria (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ferroviaria (W)

WWLWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
13/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
08/08	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
02/08	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	4-2	13	1	W
26/07	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
21/07	Corinthians (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
18/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
28/05	UD Alagoana (W) Copa do Brazil Women	5-0	8-0	15	3	W
24/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-2	6	6	W

Fluminense RJ (W)

DLLDWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	4-1	4	3	W
10/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
01/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
25/07	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
21/07	Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
28/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
23/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-3	5	4	D
16/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
09/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
01/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria (W) 62%, draw 24%, Fluminense RJ (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Ferroviaria (W) 1.89 · Fluminense RJ (W) 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.