Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 22/08, 23:00
Prediction: EC Vitoria (W) vs Santos (W)
Team pages: EC Vitoria (W) · Santos (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
EC Vitoria (W)1.1
Santos (W)1.94
1X2
EC Vitoria (W)
Draw
Santos (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
EC Vitoria (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Santos (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
EC Vitoria (W)
0–4
Santos (W)
(4 last)
- Santos (W)1-0EC Vitoria (W)
- EC Vitoria (W)1-3Santos (W)
- EC Vitoria (W)1-3Santos (W)
- Santos (W)3-1EC Vitoria (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EC Vitoria (W) 1441 · Santos (W) 1486
| EC Vitoria (W) | Draw | Santos (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (W) (rating 1441 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Santos (W): 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EC Vitoria (W) | Santos (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.5 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.1 | 1.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Vitoria (W) 0–0–4 Santos (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/20 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Santos (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | EC Vitoria (W) |
| 10/07/19 Brazil Serie A1 Women | EC Vitoria (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Santos (W) |
| 03/05/17 Brazil Serie A1 Women | EC Vitoria (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Santos (W) |
| 02/04/17 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Santos (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | EC Vitoria (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 15 | 38 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 30 |
| 5 | Bahia (W) | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro (W) | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
| 7 | Flamengo (W) | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 19 | 27 |
| 8 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 16 | 24 |
| 10 | Internacional (W) | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 24 |
| 11 | Bragantino (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 23 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto EC (W) | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 12 |
| 15 | EC Juventude (W) | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 10 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 7 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 43 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 37 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | EC Vitoria (W) | Santos (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bragantino (W) | 2-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Internacional (W) | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Sao Paulo (W) | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Corinthians (W) | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| EC Juventude (W) | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| America MG (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Flamengo (W) | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Santos (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EC Vitoria (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-4 | 2-6 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 02/08 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 26/07 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 19/05 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
Santos (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 21/04 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in EC Vitoria (W) vs Santos (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Santos (W) win (56%). Probabilities: EC Vitoria (W) 20%, draw 24%, Santos (W) 56%.
How many goals are expected in EC Vitoria (W) vs Santos (W)?
The model expects 3.04 goals (EC Vitoria (W) 1.1 · Santos (W) 1.94), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in EC Vitoria (W) vs Santos (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.