Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 22/08, 23:00
Prediction: America MG (W) vs Bragantino (W)
Team pages: America MG (W) · Bragantino (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
America MG (W)0.75
Bragantino (W)1.81
1X2
America MG (W)
Draw
Bragantino (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
America MG (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Bragantino (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America MG (W)
0–1–4
Bragantino (W)
(5 last)
- Bragantino (W)2-0America MG (W)
- America MG (W)1-1Bragantino (W)
- Bragantino (W)3-0America MG (W)
- America MG (W)0-2Bragantino (W)
- Bragantino (W)1-0America MG (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America MG (W) 1432 · Bragantino (W) 1539
| America MG (W) | Draw | Bragantino (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market | 15% | 23% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (W) (rating 1432 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Bragantino (W): 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America MG (W) | Bragantino (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.7 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG (W) 0–1–4 Bragantino (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bragantino (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | America MG (W) |
| 02/05/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women | America MG (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bragantino (W) |
| 26/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Bragantino (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | America MG (W) |
| 18/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | America MG (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Bragantino (W) |
| 14/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Bragantino (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | America MG (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 15 | 38 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 30 |
| 5 | Bahia (W) | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro (W) | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
| 7 | Flamengo (W) | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 19 | 27 |
| 8 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 16 | 24 |
| 10 | Internacional (W) | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 24 |
| 11 | Bragantino (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 23 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto EC (W) | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 12 |
| 15 | EC Juventude (W) | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 10 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 7 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 43 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 37 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | America MG (W) | Bragantino (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense RJ (W) | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Gremio (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Santos (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Botafogo (W) | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Atletico Mineiro (W) | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Cruzeiro (W) | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| EC Vitoria (W) | 0-0 D | 6-2 W |
| Sao Paulo (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bragantino (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America MG (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/08 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 27/04 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 21/04 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
Bragantino (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
4-1 | 6-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/04 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America MG (W) vs Bragantino (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bragantino (W) win (62%). Probabilities: America MG (W) 14%, draw 24%, Bragantino (W) 62%.
How many goals are expected in America MG (W) vs Bragantino (W)?
The model expects 2.57 goals (America MG (W) 0.75 · Bragantino (W) 1.81), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in America MG (W) vs Bragantino (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.