Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 22/08, 23:00

Prediction: Cruzeiro (W) vs Palmeiras (W)

Team pages: Cruzeiro (W) · Palmeiras (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Cruzeiro (W)0.97

Palmeiras (W)1.65

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Cruzeiro (W) Draw Palmeiras (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDLWLW

Palmeiras (W) 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro (W) 2–1–3 Palmeiras (W) (6 last)

Cruzeiro (W)1-2Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-3Cruzeiro (W)
Palmeiras (W)0-1Cruzeiro (W)
Palmeiras (W)2-2Cruzeiro (W)
Cruzeiro (W)1-2Palmeiras (W)
Cruzeiro (W)1-2Palmeiras (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro (W) 1516 · Palmeiras (W) 1614

	Cruzeiro (W)	Draw	Palmeiras (W)
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (W) (rating 1516 vs 1614).
H2H favours Palmeiras (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro (W)	Palmeiras (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.26
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:53 +7’	4.20	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:09	4.21	3.47	1.77
20:23 +5’	4.21	3.46▼	1.77
17:16 +2’	4.26▲	3.46	1.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro (W) 2–1–3 Palmeiras (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Palmeiras (W)
24/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro (W)
22/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Cruzeiro (W)
28/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	2-2 HT 2-1	Cruzeiro (W)
25/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Palmeiras (W)
07/05/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Palmeiras (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	16	12	2	2	41	15	38
2	Sao Paulo (W)	16	12	2	2	30	11	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	16	10	5	1	32	11	35
4	Ferroviaria (W)	16	8	6	2	22	13	30
5	Bahia (W)	16	8	4	4	28	19	28
6	Cruzeiro (W)	16	7	6	3	30	19	27
7	Flamengo (W)	16	7	6	3	25	19	27
8	Fluminense RJ (W)	16	7	4	5	22	18	25
9	Gremio (W)	16	7	3	6	22	16	24
10	Internacional (W)	16	7	3	6	18	16	24
11	Bragantino (W)	16	7	2	7	28	25	23
12	Santos (W)	16	5	5	6	20	22	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	16	4	4	8	16	21	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	16	2	6	8	10	26	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	16	2	4	10	7	20	10
16	America MG (W)	16	1	4	11	8	32	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	16	1	4	11	14	43	7
18	Botafogo (W)	16	1	2	13	10	37	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro (W)	Palmeiras (W)
Mixto EC (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Botafogo (W)	4-0 W	3-0 W
EC Juventude (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
Bragantino (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Internacional (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruzeiro (W)

LDDWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	2	10	L
01/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
25/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
24/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
19/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
09/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	8	0	W
01/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
26/04	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
22/04	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

Palmeiras (W)

WDDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	10	2	W
08/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	1	9	D
02/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
25/07	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
24/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/05	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
12/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
02/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
21/04	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro (W) 21%, draw 27%, Palmeiras (W) 52%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Cruzeiro (W) 0.97 · Palmeiras (W) 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.