Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 15/08, 22:30
Prediction: Bahia (W) vs Corinthians (W)
Team pages: Bahia (W) · Corinthians (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Bahia (W)0.89
Corinthians (W)1.73
1X2
Bahia (W)
Draw
Corinthians (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bahia (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Corinthians (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bahia (W)
0–5
Corinthians (W)
(5 last)
- Corinthians (W)2-0Bahia (W)
- Bahia (W)1-2Corinthians (W)
- Corinthians (W)5-1Bahia (W)
- Bahia (W)1-5Corinthians (W)
- Corinthians (W)2-0Bahia (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bahia (W) 1539 · Corinthians (W) 1598
| Bahia (W) | Draw | Corinthians (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (W) (rating 1539 vs 1598).
- H2H favours Corinthians (W): 5-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bahia (W) | Corinthians (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bahia (W) 0–0–5 Corinthians (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Corinthians (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 09/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Corinthians (W) |
| 04/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Corinthians (W) | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 12/06/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 1-5 HT 1-4 | Corinthians (W) |
| 30/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Corinthians (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bahia (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 35 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 32 |
| 4 | Bahia (W) | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 27 |
| 5 | Ferroviaria (W) | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gremio (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Internacional (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 24 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro (W) | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | Flamengo (W) | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 11 | Bragantino (W) | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 20 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 13 |
| 14 | Mixto EC (W) | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 12 |
| 15 | EC Juventude (W) | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 7 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bahia (W) | Corinthians (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Ferroviaria (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Mixto EC (W) | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Palmeiras (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bahia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 22/07 | Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Corinthians (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Ferroviaria (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Palmeiras (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 26/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bahia (W) vs Corinthians (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Corinthians (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Bahia (W) 18%, draw 25%, Corinthians (W) 57%.
How many goals are expected in Bahia (W) vs Corinthians (W)?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Bahia (W) 0.89 · Corinthians (W) 1.73), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bahia (W) vs Corinthians (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.